Our computer model projects a win for the Atlanta Falcons when they face the Kansas City Chiefs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 22 at 8:20 p.m. ET — for more information regarding the spread, over/under and final score, see below.

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Despite having a bottom-five defense that ranks fourth-worst in the NFL (386.0 yards allowed per game), the Chiefs have played better on the other side of the ball, ranking 15th in the NFL by averaging 319.5 yards per game. In terms of points scored the Falcons rank 24th in the NFL (16.0 points per game), and they are 11th on defense (19.5 points allowed per game).

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Falcons vs. Chiefs Predictions and Picks

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Falcons Betting Info

• The implied probability of a win by the Falcons based on the moneyline is 41.7%.
• Atlanta has a record of 1-1-0 against the spread this season.
• The Falcons have covered the spread when playing as at least 3-point underdogs in their only opportunity this season.
• Atlanta and its opponent have not yet hit the over in 2024.
• Falcons games average 44.5 total points, two fewer than the total for this matchup.

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Chiefs Betting Info

• The implied moneyline probability in this matchup gives the Chiefs a 62.3% chance to win.
• Kansas City has won one game against the spread this season.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 3-point favorites.
• This season, games featuring Kansas City have hit the over every time.
• The total for this game is 46.5, 0.5 points fewer than the average total in Chiefs games thus far this season.

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Falcons vs. Chiefs 2024 Scoring Insights

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